Saudi Arabia needs to be vigilant against another raid on oil field / equipment!

When it comes to the oil market, the situation in the Middle East is a major factor that must be concerned. In recent years, Saudi oil fields oil equipment have been attacked repeatedly by Iran. For example, on September 4th, 2019, Iran's raid on Saudi Arabia has set a big one-day increase in oil prices. Foreign media said after an interview with Iranian sources that the attacks on Saudi oil fields oil equipment will continue to "surprise the market".

What's going on? All of this should be started the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" in crude oil Edition: Iran, Saudi Arabia the United States.

The control of oil in the United States cannot be separated the control of the situation in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has always been the agent of the United States to control the situation in the Middle East, Iran seems to be the reason for bringing peace to the Middle East the United States saying "I protect you" to other countries.

On September 14th, 2019, Iran's raid on Saudi Arabia was the most classic representative event.

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Iran has many positive aspects in implementing this strategy after the major attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities on 14 September 2019.

If it is for Iran to be sure what the former president of the United States, trump, might respond to before the 2020 presidential election, Iran is likely to have more such attacks before the latest attacks on March 4 7.

According to an interview with oilprice, a source who has worked in the Iranian government for many years, although the United States usually acts directly against Iran, during Trump's administration, the United States ally Saudi Arabia attacked on September 14th, 2019, the United States did act immediately. However, Iran later paid a corresponding price, on January 3, 2020, the major general qasemsoleimani, who planned to attack Saudi Arabia, was assassinated. "

Iran's direct attack on Saudi Arabia will always be used again, the Iranian source continued.

Despite Trump's departure, Tehran (the capital of Iran) believes it is time to launch a new attack after the new president of the United States recently authorized the United States to attack Iran's assets in Syria.

On February 26, the United States raided the border between the Syrian city of bukamal the Iraqi town of ghaim, attacked some radical groups supported by Iran in the eastern part of Syria, which are active in the Iraqi Shiite people's mobilization force (PMF).

According to the site reports on the scene, at least 22 people were killed in the US air strikes, mainly Hezbollah of PMF alliance sayyidal Shuhada, which are allied with Syrian Iranian backed Damascus government.

In short, the United States is attacking Iranian military agents operating overseas, Iran itself.

However, the US air strikes against Iran's agents in Syria are in itself revenge for "three rockets launched by Iraq several days ago into the green zone of Baghdad", which are intended to destroy the United States embassy there.

A few days before the incident, another Iranian who had been a militia, sarayawliyaal dam, fired 107 mm rockets in succession near the U.S. base in Erbil (elbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan autonomous region), killing a civilian contractor, killing killing nine others.

In short, Iran has hit the US military related agency targets for overseas activities.

Given the attacks by the United States, Iran has clearly decided to raise its bet, Iran will benefit directly the effective attack on Saudi Arabia, one of the key U.S. allies, against Saudi oil fields infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Israel.

Iran: there are three advantages to attack Saudi Arabia

For Iran, one of the major oil producing countries, the most direct visible benefit of successful attacks on Saudi oil equipment is that oil prices should rise, depending on how much damage Saudi oil equipment has received in such attacks.

(this is benefit one)

Another benefit Iran has gained after the attacks on Saudi Arabia on 14 September 2019 is that experienced oil dealers now know that Saudi Arabia's relevant statements on such attacks are no longer valued.

(this is benefit two)

Therefore, whether Iran's attack is successful , Iran has gained more benefits than the possible losses.

Specifically, on September 14th, 2019, the air strikes on Saudi Arabia's large-scale Abqaiq oil processing facilities khurais oil fields launched by Iran backed Yemeni Husser armed forces resulted in a temporary reduction of Saudi oil production by 5.7 million barrels per day. This is more than half of the country's actual crude oil production capacity (rather than the capacity that Saudi Arabia has fabricated for geopolitical purposes in recent years), has led to "a big one-day increase in history" on the day of oil prices.

However, Prince abdulazizbinsalaman, Saudi Arabia's then new oil minister, said after the attack that Saudi Arabia plans to restore oil production to 11million barrels per day in two weeks.

Richardbronze, cross energy analyst at energyaspects in London, commented: "his words are very illustrative. To avoid talking about actual production, he uses capacity then" supplytothermarket ", Because both capacity supply are different the actual production concept at the end of the well. ".

Bronze added that Saudi Arabia tried to expose the truth in order to protect its image as an oil supplier to its customers, especially for its target customers in Asia. So we have to have a good taste of these statements（ After the attacks on the Saudi oil field on September 14th, 2019), Saudi Arabia's comments may protect any direct lies, but they do show the most real situation.

Another major benefit of Iran's attack on Saudi Arabia through drones missiles is that it will intensify already tense relations between the United States Saudi Arabia.

(this is the benefit of 3)

The cornerstone of the relations between the United States Saudi Arabia was established by an agreement signed by the two countries in 1945. President Franklin D. Roosevelt then Saudi King Abdulaziz signed an agreement on the Kushui Lake section of the Suez Canal. The agreement provides that the United States will receive all the oil supply it needs as long as Saudi Arabia has oil supply, in return, the United States will guarantee the security of Saudi ruling groups.

Two oil price wars

For a long time, Saudi Arabia believed that as long as oil supply to the United States, a large number of defense procurement transactions with the United States, the United States' settlement of its geopolitical rival Iran, Saudi Arabia would do nothing to affect the relationship between the rest of the United States, including its comprehensive oil price war with the US shale oil sector in 2014 2016.

Clearly, Saudi Arabia mistakenly judged the importance of the shale oil sector to the US's huge economy geopolitics, but it has yet killed the cornerstone of 1945 relations between the two countries.

Instead, after the oil price war in 2014-2016, the relationship between the two countries included new expectations the United States for Saudi Arabia: the United States hopes Saudi Arabia will do anything "that jeopardizes the expansion of the US shale oil industry". The key point is that Saudi Arabia cannot be involved in another oil price war to avoid "excessive production breaking the balance between supply demand, leading to oil price collapse causing financial pressure on the shale oil industry in the United States".

On the other hand, the United States also hopes Saudi Arabia needs to ensure that oil production cannot be too low. If the oil production is too low, the rise in crude oil prices will in turn push up the level of gasoline prices in the United States, will damage the economy the chances of re-election of the current president.

Brent crude

The price of $40-75 the fact that Saudi Arabia's market share is being snatched away by us shale oil producers is the price Saudi Arabia needs to pay to the United States, which has received political, economic military protection the United States.

When Saudi Arabia launched a war on oil prices in the US shale oil field again in 2020, the United States lost confidence in the cornerstone relationship between the United States Saudi Arabia was determined to gradually reduce its dependence on Saudi Arabia, except as a force of containment with Iran in the region.

For this potential message, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have understood it after Trump's call on April 2, 2020. At the time, President trump called to say that unless OPEC began cutting oil output - effectively ending the oil price war, trump could stop the bill that U.S. lawmakers decided to withdraw Saudi Arabia.

The United States even wants to eradicate the remaining dependence on Saudi Arabia: the US dependence on "Saudi Arabia as a force of control over Iran in the Middle East". The United States can suppress Iran through a wider coalition of Arab countries. Therefore, we see that the United States has developed relations with the United Arab Emirates Bahrain, even more Arab countries, with the axis of "normalization agreement on relations with Israel" in the near future.

Iran knows everything about it. While it took Iran some time to reorganize the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Al qudsforce, which focused on diplomatic secret operations, it took Iran some time,

Iran has also launched these attacks against Saudi Arabia, which is why the crude oil market will be affected by more geopolitical factors of such attacks.

This paper analyzes the translation editing of the oil price by Huitong network if it is translated compiled according to foreign media interviews, hopes to provide reference for investors studying the basic aspects of oil price.

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Source: China Energy Network