Oil prices hit a two-year high demand is expected to release in the summer

As of March 12, Brent crude oil price was $69.62/barrel, while the weekly ratio fell by 0.07 USD / barrel; WTI crude oil prices were $65.91/barrel, down $0.45 a barrel on a weekly basis. Saudi oil export facilities were attacked, resulting in oil prices rising more than two years high; The US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill has been signed into law. Biden believes that it can reach the goal of 100 million doses of vaccine in 60 days of office, 40 days earlier than the previous commitment, demand is expected to be released in summer; For polyester, poy150d reported 7975 yuan / ton this week, with a ring ratio of +175 yuan / T; The comprehensive starting rate of weaving in the lower reaches of Jiangsu Zhejiang is 64.57%, the ring ratio is + 2.25pct. It will enter the peak season of "gold, three silver four", but due to the sufficient raw materials preparation in the early stage of downstream textile enterprises the new order receipt is as expected, the market warming needs to be observed this week; The main beneficiaries are: (1) private refining: Tongkun, Hengyi petrochemical, Rongsheng petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong（ 2) Light hydrocarbon cracking: Satellite petrochemical, Donghua energy（ 3) Oil clothing Faucet: CNOOC（ 4) Coal to olefin leader: Baofeng energy（ 5) Private gas station: Heshun oil（ 6) Beneficiary assets injection pipeline network company: CNPC, Sinopec, CNPC engineering, new Olympic joint stock Co., Ltd., Shenzhen gas.

Supply stability & demand improvement, crude oil demand is expected to release supply stability in summer: according to EIA new data, in the week of March 5, the US crude oil output is 10.9 million barrels / day, maintaining last week's output, decreasing by 100000 barrels / day month on month; Bakerhughes released data for the week on March 12, with 403 active drilling rigs in the United States this week 6 more than monthly month on month; Inventory recovery: in the week of March 5, the total inventory of commercial crude oil oil in the United States was 1.283 billion barrels, with a weekly to ring increase of 1.319 million barrels. Among them, the commercial crude oil inventory was 498million barrels, the weekly ratio increased by 13.798 million barrels; The gasoline inventory was 247million barrels, with a decrease of 11.869 million barrels per week to ring ratio; Demand improvement: in the week of March 5, the refinery maintained the processing capacity of 18.39 million barrels / day last week, the weekly cycle ratio of the commencement rate increased by 13pct to 69.0%; In terms of consumption, the total oil consumption in the United States this week is 18.67 million barrels / day, with a weekly to ring ratio decrease of 90000 barrels / day, of which, the gasoline consumption is 8.73 million barrels / day, the weekly cycle ratio increases by 580000 barrels / day; Demand is expected to be released in summer: the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill has been signed into law. Biden said it would reach the goal of delivering 100million doses of vaccine in 60 days of office, 40 days ahead of schedule a small-scale gathering on the holiday on July 4. The backlog of gasoline demand will be released in the summer, the US Europe driving peak, assuming the vaccination program is successful, FGE said. In addition, OPEC said the recovery in oil demand will focus on the second half of the year, with a global oil demand forecast up of 970000 barrels / day for the fourth quarter.

Filament prices continue to rise, downstream maintenance just needs replenishment

In terms of cost, PTA MEG fell sharply this week, the supply of factory load increased pressure bearing, the subsequent MEG still had a weak shock; In terms of demand, the comprehensive starting rate of weaving in the lower reaches of Jiangsu Zhejiang this week is 64.57%, the ring ratio is +2.25pct. It will enter the peak season of "gold, three silver four", but due to the abundant raw materials preparation in the early stage of downstream textile enterprises the new order receiving situation is as expected, the market heating up is still to be observed to maintain the replenishment this week; In terms of inventory, according to ccfei, the current poy/fdy/dty inventory is 7-11 days / 12-16 days / 20-26 days respectively, although there is an increase, it is still in a lower position; In terms of price, poy150d this week reported 7975 yuan / ton, while the weekly ring ratio rose 175 yuan / ton; Fdy150d reported 8200 yuan / ton, with weekly ring ratio up 200 yuan / ton; Dty150d reported 9600 yuan / ton, with weekly ring ratio up 225 yuan / ton; In terms of price difference, the PX naphtha oil price difference decreased by 8.01% this week; The price difference of PTA PX decreased by 6.84%; The difference between polyester filament PTA glycol decreased by 2.63%.

LNG prices fluctuated this week, the operating rate of the liquid plant increased

According to Bachuan Yingfu, LNG price index rose 152 yuan to 3555 yuan / ton this week, up 4.47% on month basis.

At the supply end, with the abundant supply of feed gas, most domestic liquid plants have returned to normal production. The domestic liquid plant start rate this week is 53%, an increase of 4.03pct on a month basis compared with last week. At the demand end, the downstream plant construction rate increases, the gas station is delivered to support the demand; However, with the continuous increase of LNG prices, the downstream enterprises' receiving operations may slow down.

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Source: China Energy Network