Refined oil products will be raised for the 11th time this year, the next round of price adjustment remains uncertain

Consumer fuel costs are rising again as the 11th increase in refined oil prices this year is set to take effect.

On September 6th, according to the prediction of many institutions, the price of gasoline diesel will be increased by 140 yuan/ton respectively at 24:00 on September 6th, equivalent to the price increase, 92 gasoline 0 diesel rose by 0.11 yuan, 0.12 yuan respectively. Consumers will have to pay 5.5 yuan more to fill up a tank of no. 92 gasoline after the increase is implemented.

This round of price adjustment is the 17th time in 2021 the 11th time this year. After this adjustment, refined oil price adjustment in 2021 will show a pattern of "11 up, three down, three stranded". According to zhuochuang Information, standard gasoline diesel have been raised by 1265 yuan/ton 1220 yuan/ton respectively this year, equivalent to the price increase. 92 gasoline 0 diesel have increased by 0.99 yuan 1.04 yuan respectively.

Zhuo Chuang information products analyst Yang Xia analysis pointed out that this pricing cycle, international crude oil as a whole showed a shock upward trend. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the Opec meeting remains cautious until the dust settles on the outcome. While the Opec meeting ultimately left production plans unchanged, oil futures in the U.S. Europe did move much, while hurricane-related supply concerns led to another end-of-cycle rally. On the whole, the change of international crude oil drives the change rate of domestic reference crude oil negative cycle to positive, finally this round of retail price limit of refined oil products will show an upward trend.

In the later stage, Yang Xia believes that the international crude oil market demand is still contained by the epidemic, the supply side is slightly bearish, the oil market is difficult to relay rise, there is a high probability of weak adjustment, the trend is weak. The change rate after recalculation is positive at a low value, so the next round of retail price limit adjustment of refined oil products still has great uncertainty, the probability of being stranded increased at the beginning of the cycle is large.

Longzhong information analyst Li Yan is expected to run aground of next round of refined oil price adjustment probability. Based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of price adjustment of refined oil products will show an upward trend at the beginning, with a range of about 40 yuan/ton. At present, the summer travel peak in the United States has ended, the seasonal consumption benefit has faded, the global pandemic remains severe, economic demand concerns remain.

According to the adjustment cycle of the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, a new round of gasoline diesel price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 18.

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Source: China Energy Net