Domestic oil price adjustment probability stranded for the third time in the year

At 24:00 today, a new round of price adjustment for domestic refined oil products will be opened. Many institutions predict that due to the impact of the epidemic other factors, international oil prices have been rising falling in this round of pricing cycle, this price adjustment for refined oil products is highly likely to be stalled, which will be the third time this year.

In this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil futures prices rose first then fell, at the end of the cycle, the prices of US Bu oil both fell. Early Saturday morning (Beijing time), WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.28 / barrel, down 1.17%; Brent October crude settled at $70.70 a barrel, down 0.83%.

Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Zhengji said, earlier, the international crude oil prices continue to rise, supply demand tightening expectations are still boosting oil prices, the market is expected to the United States, India Europe demand recovery will further tighten the global crude oil market, investors still think OPEC+ production will be difficult to change the current market in the short term supply trend. In addition, the U.S. crude oil inventories other factors have also provided strong support for crude oil prices.

Han said that in the later stage, the epidemic has put the economic recovery of major oil consuming countries at risk, the pressure on oil prices has fallen sharply. Although the United States, Europe other countries regions have taken measures to prevent control the epidemic, but the market is still concerned about the growth of fuel demand in the second half of the year.

Liu Biao, an analyst with Zhongyu Information, also pointed out that as the epidemic continues to spread the number of COVID-19 cases surges globally, the market's outlook on demand is no longer as optimistic as before. However, OPEC oil production in July increased to the highest level since April last year, the fundamental performance of supply demand is in opposite direction. Crude oil futures prices have fallen sharply since August, with THE U.S. Buenos Aires oil prices successively falling below the $70 mark. Under the influence of the weak crude oil market, domestic refined oil zero limit price adjustment expectations continue to adjust back.

According to estimates by several institutions, as of the ninth working day of the round on August 6, the price adjustment range of refined oil products corresponding to the change rate of crude oil varieties was less than 50 yuan/ton. According to the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, when the increase decrease is less than 50 yuan/ton, the domestic finished oil price will be adjusted.

Zhongxin Jingwen client statistics found that since 2021, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for 14 rounds, gasoline prices increased by a total of 1375 yuan/ton, diesel prices increased by a total of 1325 yuan/ton, showing a pattern of "ten up, two down, two stranded". If this forecast materialized, domestic refined oil prices will be stranded for the third time in the year.

In addition, Longhong Information Li Yan mentioned that wholesale, the recent wholesale prices of gasoline diesel have fallen, in addition to the impact of the international oil price once fell sharply, the local epidemic has repeatedly suppressed gasoline consumption, as well as the slow improvement of the traditional off-season demand for diesel also brought pressure. As for the retail of gas stations, preferential policies will continue. The retail price of gasoline in private gas stations is more than 0.4-0.6 yuan/liter lower than that in main gas stations. During the activities of some stations, the preferential strength can reach 1-1.3 yuan/liter.

The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 23. Li Yan believes that the spread of the delta mutation strain in many countries around the world, economic demand expectations have been affected, the next round of refined oil price adjustment is expected to be lower than the probability.

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Source: China Energy Network