US demand for oil products is expected to grow as the economy continues to recover

According to Moscow on April 12, according to the information of hydrocarbon processing network, the short term energy outlook (steo) issued by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in April predicted that vaccination  fiscal stimulus will support the sustained recovery of the US economy  promote the growth of us demand for petroleum products.

Consumption of gasoline  distillates is expected to increase  last summer, but still lower than in 2019.

As some of the economic  behavioral effects of the epidemic subside next year, we predict that demand for transportation fuel in the United States will increase. We forecast that gasoline consumption in 2021 will peak at 9.1 million B / D in August, higher than the 8.5 million B / D we saw in August 2020, but lower than the 9.8 million B / D in August 2019. The average daily consumption of gasoline in the summer of 2021 will be 8.8 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels (an increase of 13%) compared with the summer of 2020, but a decrease of 700000 barrels (a decrease of 7%) compared with the summer of 2019.

It is predicted that the average retail price of regular gasoline in the United States will be $2.78 per gallon in the summer of 2021, 72 cents higher than last summer's $2.06 per gallon. Compared with last summer, the forecast of a substantial increase in global economic activity this summer has led to a rise in the price of crude oil, which is a major determinant of US gasoline prices.

The impact of the measures to deal with the epidemic on the demand for diesel in the United States is  as big as that on the demand for gasoline. We forecast that the average daily consumption of distillate fuels, including diesel  heating oil, will be 4 million barrels this summer, an increase of 11% (i.e. 400000 barrels / day) over last summer, when the consumption level of distillate fuels in the United States reached the lowest level since the summer of 2009. However, distillate consumption is expected to approach the level of 2019 (less than 1%).

As MRC has written before, gasoline sales in the United States have increased year-on-year for the first time on the first anniversary of the first sharp drop in stay at home requirements caused by the new coronavirus. However, according to more recent data  IHS Markit's oil price information service (OPIs), demand is still far behind pre epidemic levels.

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Source: International Petroleum Network