Eight characteristics of global oil gas business development under the new situation

After the baptism in 2020, major economies, countries oil companies in the world have successively issued energy transformation policies objectives, energy transformation has entered the practical operation level. The author summarizes the development characteristics trends of the oil gas industry under the "great change" eight aspects, which can be used for readers' reference.

1. regularity of energy structure evolution

The global primary consumption energy type is developing high carbon to low carbon carbon free, fossil to renewable, low density to high density. However, energy transformation is a long gradual process, it is impossible to achieve it in one step. Before the core issues such as new energy technology cost have been broken through on a large scale, oil gas is still the main energy in the future.

At present, the global oil production is in the trend of "steady increasing". Natural gas has entered a rapid development "golden period", which is bound to play a pivotal role in the third energy transformation. It is estimated that oil accounts for 27.2% of global energy consumption, 25.84% of natural gas, 20.3% of coal 26.66% of non fossil energy (including new energy) in 2040.

2. balance of global oil gas supply demand pattern

The supply demand structure of oil gas contains multiple information such as resources, market geopolitics, which is the concentrated embodiment of the global oil gas pattern, its basic characteristics are balance. If the oil gas supply demand structure is the main dividing basis, since the birth of global oil industry in 1859, the global oil gas pattern has experienced three historical evolution of "American Center", "one region, two centers" "two belt three centers".

The United States, Europe Asia Pacific are the three major oil gas consumption centers in the world. In 2019, crude oil consumption in three regions (countries) accounted for 72% of the world crude oil consumption. In recent years, the crude oil consumption in the United States Europe has changed much. The Asia Pacific (mainly China India) has grown rapidly, 18% (516 million tons) in 1980 to 37% (1.66 billion tons) in 2019; Natural gas consumption accounts for 58% of the world's natural gas consumption, Europe Asia Pacific have grown rapidly, with Asia Pacific rising 5% (65million tons equivalent) in 1980 to 22% (670 million tons equivalent) in 2019.

3. the stability of oil gas Geopolitics

The stability of oil gas geopolitics plays an important role in international oil gas cooperation its trend. At present, the risk of CNPC in the main oil gas cooperation areas overseas has risen as a whole, it presents a long-term normalized wave turbulence.

The instability in the Arab world is in the trend of long-term normalization. After the democratic revolution of Arab spring, the Arab countries are in deep turbulence. The main reasons include: several wars conflicts, the destruction of the major countries' economy, the urgent need for recovery development of oil gas industry, the prominent economic people's livelihood problems; Hatred between Shia Sunnis has been accumulated day by day, ethnic religious conflicts have intensified; Foreign intervention in western countries has played a role in promoting turbulence.

The potential risks in Central Asia continue to rise“ Long term politics is one of the most prominent risks in Central Asia. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan other countries generally have the risk of "old people politics". Although some countries have completed the "new old era alternation", there are still difficulties in the political experience of the new president the balance of the original forces in China; The existence of the game between the United States Russia still has the risk of coup caused by color revolution. Another prominent risk in Central Asia is fiscal tax risk. The government of resource countries will change the financial tax clauses in oil gas cooperation frequently according to the changes of external environment, especially the oil price, so as to limit the interest sharing of investors.

The dispute between the left right wings of Latin America is ongoing, social problems are prominent the situation is becoming more complex. With the interference of the United States, the dispute between the left right wings in Latin America is intensified the situation is facing more complex changes. Meanwhile, Latin America is one of the most serious regions in the world between rich poor. Populism is strong, social contradictions are sharp, stability is poor public security is deteriorating. Oil gas investment in Latin America will face political social risks for a long time.

4. the succeeding of exploration development business development

The progress of exploration development technology the renewal of engineering equipment promote the gradual replacement of global oil gas exploration development fields conventional to unconventional, land to deep water.

the perspective of exploration, global oil gas exploration has entered the middle late stage, but it has the general trend of oil to gas, conventional to unconventional. The total recoverable resources of conventional oil gas in the world are about 1072.8 billion tons of oil equivalent. Generally speaking, the amount of conventional oil gas resources is increasing the potential is huge. The global oil gas resources evaluation results in the past 50 years show that the conventional oil gas resources increase by about 50%; However, the growth of conventional oil gas resources in the world has uneven distribution characteristics, the growth of oil gas resources in 27 countries such as Russia, Iran Saudi Arabia accounts for 85%. The total recoverable resources of unconventional oil gas in the world are 583.4 billion tons of oil equivalent, which is about 54% of the total conventional oil gas resources. In unconventional oil gas resources, heavy oil oil sands are mainly distributed in Venezuela Canada, dense oil shale are mainly distributed in North America Central Asia Russia; Shale gas, CBM tight gas resources are mainly distributed in North America, Central Asia Russia Asia Pacific region.

the perspective of development, oil gas production continues to increase through orderly replacement in the development field. By the end of 2019, the global oil gas resources are mainly distributed in 133 countries in six regions, with a total of 404 basins 15949 oil gas fields (9017 oil fields); 6932 gas fields, compared with the end of 2018, the number of oil gas fields increased by 2160 (726 oil fields); 1434 gas fields). In 2019, the global oil gas output was 7.98 billion tons, including 4.64 billion tons of crude oil 3955.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of 2.34%.

As for the change of the field, the conventional oil gas production on land has decreased by 1.6%, the offshore oil gas production has increased by 2.2%, the annual growth of unconventional oil gas in the past ten years is 115million tons, with an annual growth rate of 9.1%.

5. strategy of structural adjustment of oil gas business

International oil companies, especially oil giants, are the leading players in the oil gas market. The business structure formed in the process of their operation directly reflects their strategic trend. The business structure of international oil company includes three aspects: oil gas type, asset type asset distribution.

(1) Oil gas type

the oil gas proportion in the business structure, the commercial residual recoverable reserves production ratio of the seven international oil companies are close to 50%. This indicates that in recent years, the international oil companies have adhered to the strategy of oil gas, natural gas has become one of the key development areas.

(2) Asset type

the perspective of asset types, the seven international oil companies have formed diversified asset structures in the long-term development process, to some extent, they have enhanced their ability to resist wind profitability. However, according to their own characteristics preferences, the asset types of each company are biased, such as shell's LNG assets account for relatively high proportion; BP shell have technical advantages in deep water, their deep water assets account for relatively high proportion; ExxonMobil Chevron have increased their acquisition of unconventional oil gas production in North America in recent years, with its unconventional oil gas assets accounting for a relatively high proportion; Total has geographical pre development advantages in North Africa, its onshore conventional oil gas assets account for a relatively high proportion.

(3) Asset distribution

the business layout, the seven international oil companies have also formed a more diversified layout structure. In order to avoid the risks brought by oil gas geopolitics, the proportion of assets in the middle high risk areas has gradually decreased. In recent years, the trend of "returning to the local" has been prevalent in the international big oil companies, especially ExxonMobil Chevron have increased the asset acquisition acquisition activities in the United States.

6. periodicity of international oil gas price fluctuation

There are many factors that affect international oil price, they are all related to each other. We divide the factors of international oil price into cost factors, supply demand factors financial factors.

In early 2020, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak broke out, leading to major economies' shutdown, the demand for crude oil shrank sharply. At the same time, OPEC+ caused a price war due to the breakdown of negotiations, which further worsened the relationship between supply demand of the market. Opec+ started to implement the production reduction agreement since the third quarter, with the international oil price rising slightly, struggling to hover around USD 40 / barrel. Judging the future oil price: on the supply side, the average opec+ production reduction implementation rate is close to 100% since may2020, while the low oil price also keeps the oil production of the United States low the supply side supply surplus shrinks; On the demand side, the global average number of new cases existing confirmed cases have been increased reduced, the epidemic has "double turning point". The US 1.9 trillion anti epidemic rescue bill will be approved by Congress before March 15, loose monetary policy will boost the recovery of crude oil demand. It is expected that the supply demand of international crude oil market will improve in two directions in 2021, with oil price rising significantly, Brent oil price will be about 60 USD / barrel in the whole year.

In addition, the analysis of the historical oil price growth trend shows that the fluctuation of oil price has obvious cyclical characteristics, with a long period of about 8-10 years, which is mainly affected by the relationship between supply demand; The short period is about 2-3 years, which is mainly affected by emergencies major events. The outbreak of the outbreak in 2020 accelerated the change of oil prices, but it is still within the cyclical indicators. For oil gas investment projects, it has long-term characteristics; Especially, the sensitivity of different types of contract models to oil price of overseas oil gas investment projects is different, which determines that in the process of investment acquisition of oil gas assets, we should grasp the cyclical law of oil price avoid investment risk caused by oil price.

7. originality of theoretical technological development of oil gas exploration development

In the past 100 years, the global oil gas production has been in a rapid growth stage, the main driving factor is the technological change progress.

Technological progress has always been a powerful driving force for the rapid development of the oil industry. In the future, development engineering technology will be in four directions, namely intelligent, nanotechnology, bionic technology in-situ modification transformation.

(1) Intellectualization

The complexity concealment of underground environment make the development technology of oil gas fields develop towards the direction of intelligence, including the intelligence of oil gas wells, the intelligence of fluids the intelligence of oil gas fields. The essence of intelligence is to improve the accuracy of exploration reduce the exploration risk through real-time monitoring, processing feedback; Improve recovery; Reduce costs; Improve safety early warning response ability. The key technologies of intelligent include telemetry technology, visualization technology, intelligent drilling completion technology, automation technology, data integration, management mining technology, integrated management system, etc.

(2) Nanotechnology

Nanotechnology, as a frontier science, has a great effect profound influence on various industries including oil gas industry. Nano robot has many uses in oil gas exploration exploitation: assisting to delineate reservoir range, drawing fracture fault graph, identifying determining high permeability channel, identifying oil gas missed in reservoir, optimizing well location design establishing more effective geological model, may also be used to send chemicals into the reservoir for oil displacement in the future.

(3) Bionic technology

The bio chemical oil well is one of the development directions in the future. The drilling mode of "bionic oil-friendly" was developed by imitating the growth characteristics of "hydrophilicity" of plant roots, the special plugging function of different reservoir liquid characteristics was realized by the intelligent control valve; At the same time, the physical properties of reservoir fluid prediction of water time are analyzed by underground monitoring surface control technology. By imitating the surface pits, convex hull, scales ripples of moving objects such as dung beetles pangolin, the technicians have developed a diamond impregnated bionic drill bit. The bionic protection technology of submarine pipeline can reduce the wave flow velocity, reduce the erosion of the wave the beach, promote the sediment settlement promote the sedimentation of the sea water.

(4) In situ modification transformation

The exploitation of heavy oil shale can be improved transformed by on-ground mining in situ (also known as underground in situ). In situ modification transformation include two meanings, namely "modification" "transformation": the process of transforming heavy oil into light synthetic crude oil is called "modification"; The process of transforming kerogen (oil shale is in the form of kerogen in the underground) into "oil like" is called "transformation". "in place" refers to the original place in the underground. At present, there are dozens of in-situ modification transformation technologies. The main development direction of this technology in the future is large-scale, low-cost, high efficiency, simple, effective technology, strong adaptability.

8. the diversity of oil gas resources import in China

the point of view of oil gas resource enrichment, the dependence on the main economies has its own characteristics. The oil gas consumption base of the two economies represented by the United States is large, the quantity dependence of oil gas consumption are still high even when the economic growth is slow; After 2008, the successful development of shale oil gas increased the self-sufficiency of oil gas in the United States, the dependence on foreign countries decreased rapidly. The resource failure economies represented by Europe have gradually increased their dependence on oil gas with the decrease of oil gas production, while the flexible energy utilization mode in Europe causes the fluctuation of the degree of external dependence. The resource deficient economies represented by Japan have a high degree of oil gas dependence on foreign countries, new energy utilization policy changes affect the fluctuation of foreign dependence. The sustained rapid development of the economy in emerging economies represented by China will lead to further growth of total energy consumption the increasing dependence on oil gas.

Diversification of oil gas resources import is the main way to avoid the risk of energy security. In recent years, China's oil gas demand foreign dependence have increased rapidly. According to customs data, China's crude oil import will be 542386000 tons in 2020, an increase of 7.3% year on year; The Middle East, Africa, Russia South America are the main sources of crude oil import in China. The total proportion of crude oil imported these four regions is 95%, the import volume of Middle East alone accounts for 48%; The top ten importing countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Brazil, Angola, Oman, UAE, Kuwait, the United States Norway. In 2020, China's natural gas import volume will be 101661 million tons, an increase of 5.3%; The imported pipeline gas source countries are Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Myanmar Russia respectively; LNG import source countries are 24, Australia, Qatar, Malaysia Indonesia are the top four, Australia's import volume accounts for 46%.

Although China's oil gas import has initially formed a diversified import pattern, the import source is extremely unbalanced. In the future, we should further optimize the layout of oil gas import, focus on the construction of oil gas supply pattern with the center of Middle East Central Asia Russia Africa America as the flank, that is, oil should focus on expanding the import volume of Russia, Canada other countries, The import volume of natural gas Russia, Africa, sea North America should be steadily increased.

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Source: China Energy Network